My Oscar Predictions 2016

Here are my official Oscar predictions for 2016. I got 17 out of 24 last year, so let’s see how much worse I can do this time!

BEST PICTURE-

I would be fine with any of the eight nominees here winning; they’re all truly good. Room is a unique emotional story with two powerful performances. Brooklyn is a really sweet, lovely romance. Bridge of Spies is a solid, old-fashioned thriller. The Big Short is a zany, yet effective comedy. And then there’s The Martian and Mad Max: Fury Road, both surprisingly creative and entertaining thrillers which prove how great big-budget action movies can be when they’re not just mindless movies of the week. As for what will actually win, a few months ago I would have said Spotlight. That was probably the best all-around great movie of the year and I think any reasonable person who sees it would like it, unlike a few of the others. But the favorite right now is The Revenant, which is an undeniably great cinematic achievement, and it was actually popular with the normal people too.

Likely Winner-The Revenant/My Vote-Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR-

Lenny Abrahamson (Room), as much as I loved his movie, was an out-of-nowhere surprise nominee, and Adam McKay (The Big Short) is up for a good flick but after a spotty track record. Neither of them have a chance. That leaves indie favorite Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), cult legend George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) and last year’s winner Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant). Inarritu’s accomplishments are arguably the most cinematically awe-inspiring and he won the Director’s Guild of America award. Since those people will also be voting here, it looks like we’ll have a consecutive win, the first since Joseph L. Mackiewicz’ wins in 1949/1950.

Likely Winner-Alejandro Inarritu/My Vote-George Miller

BEST ACTOR-

Let’s be real. All five of these guys are worthy contenders, but Leonardo DiCaprio is getting it for The Revenant; it’s become too much of a phenomenon and, you know, he got cold and stuff. I thought Matt Damon (The Martian) was one of the great assets in an already great movie. I think Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) is such a good performer that he made the movie he was in better than it would have been without him. I like Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) and he does wonders with an overall unlikeable character. Then there’s Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) who didn’t need a nomination after winning last year and isn't as good at playing a woman as he was at playing a paraplegic. But yeah, DiCaprio.

Likely Winner-Leonardo DiCaprio/My Vote-Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS-

BRIE LARSON ALL THE FRIGGIN’ WAY!!! Larson’s performance in Room is one of the best things that happened at the movies in 2015 and it’s a shame her young co-star Jacob Tremblay couldn’t have been recognized as well. I loved Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn (It’s pronounced Sursha) and she’s the only one who could beat Larson and I wouldn’t be too horribly pissed. Cate Blanchett does solid work as an elegantly messy character in Carol, but she’s got enough trophies on her shelf. And I like Jennifer Lawrence as much as anybody, but her nomination for Joy wasn’t really necessary. I haven’t seen Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years because it hasn’t played anywhere and I’m very upset about that.

Likely Winner-Brie Larson/My Vote-Brie Larson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR-

I never thought I would be rooting for Sylvester Stallone to win an acting prize, but here I am stating in all seriousness that his performance in Creed is the complete package of everything you could want in a supporting performance. That being so, the more respectable choice would be great British actor Mark Rylance’s quiet and memorable turn in Bridge of Spies, plus we mustn’t rule out Tom hardy’s intensely evil performance in The Revenant. The guys who shouldn’t win are Christian Bale whose outrageousness in The Big Short felt a little too controlled to me and Mark Ruffalo who is fine in Spotlight, but not better than several other strong contenders, including a few from the same picture! But anyway, anyone voting based on pure emotional resonance will go Stallone.

Likely Winner-Sylvester Stallone/My Vote-Sylvester Stallone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS-

I cannot more strongly and bitterly stress the fact that Rooney Mara is not a supporter in Carol. This is one of the most blatant examples of category fraud pretty much ever, as Mara is as significant a character/performer as Blanchett, if not more so. She’s good in the movie, but shouldn’t win on principle alone. Also arguably a lead is Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but at least her character is actually supporting the star, and she’s the best thing in a movie that’s mostly a good-looking trainwreck. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) is a rare supporting nomination that actually has limited screen time and she does make the most of it. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) is an essential part of a great ensemble and has possibly the most memorable moment in the movie. But my personal favorite is the lady least likely to make it: Jennifer Jason Leigh as the utterly foul and murderous Daisy Domergue in The Hateful Eight. It’s great fun watching her be so gleefully evil.

Likely Winner-Alicia Vikander/My Vote-Jennifer Jason Leigh

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY-

Spotlight. Easiest choice in the world. Everybody loved Inside Out, but it’ll get its desserts in the animation category. Bridge of Spies, again, is good stuff. Ex Machina is an intellectual treat and Straight Outta Compton gets the obligatory biopic nod. But Spotlight is just too darn good.

Likely Winner-Spotlight/My Vote-Spotlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY-

The choice is slightly more complicated here, cause The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, and Room are all really good examples of the writing craft. I think I most prefer Room, and I think most people prefer The Big Short. So there, I guess.

Likely Winner-The Big Short/My Vote-Room

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE-

With a nomination for Star War: The Force Awakens, John Williams has been nominated for more awards than any other composer, and its good, nostalgic stuff. Thomas Newman is also up for his typical dramatic score for Bridge of Spies, and if it weren’t for the fact that he has yet to bring the gold home, I’d say be gone with him until he has something more memorable to offer. Something like the fun and chilling score for The Hateful Eight, which also has the benefit of being written by movie legend Ennio Morricone. Yet, if we were actually voting for the best score as a complete whole, we’d have to go with Carter Burwell’s work on Carol. But no, like it or not, we’re voting more for the writer than the product, especially if that project has a hummable theme, so Morricone it is.

Likely Winner-The Hateful Eight/My Vote-The Hateful Eight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE-

I am still mortified that Fifty Shades of Grey is an Academy Award-nominated movie because of this nomination for “Earned It” by The Weeknd, and it’s not even that good! “Manta Ray” is a decent song from a meh documentary (Racing Extinction) and “Simple Song #3” from Youth is an artistically sound composition that actually works as part of the movie’s narrative, but Youth was weird and nobody saw it. So it’s between the two pop stars. Sam Smith’s “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre may be just another Bond song, but it’s the only one of these five that I remember any of right this minute, and I’m sure it’s the only one most people would recognize on the radio. But, wait! Lady Gaga has a song about rape victims! The Hunting Ground wasn’t an amazing movie, but “Til It Happens to You” is an appropriately angry and powerful song.

Likely Winner-Til It Happens to You/My Vote-Til It Happens to You

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM-

The dagblasted distributors don’t think anyone wants to see subtitled movies, so I haven’t had a chance to see any of these. However, hearsay declares that Son of Saul has the best chances. The other nominees are Embrace of the Serpent, Mustang, Theeb, and A War.

Likely Winner-Son of Saul

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE-

Pixar’s done it again! Despite the fact that Inside Out was literally blatant emotional manipulation, it worked, and I feel quite sure it’ll win easily. Anomalisa is another very special movie that works on both comedic and tragic levels, but it’s very intense, bizarre, and intended for adults (It has strong language and cartoon nudity), so it doesn’t have the universality that this award requires, great though it is. The other three nominees are Boy & the World, Shaun the Sheep Movie, and When Marnie Was There. These did MUCH smaller business than the likes of The Good Dinosaur, Minions, and The Peanuts Movie, but they’re actually better movies. So, good for the Oscars for sticking up for the underdogs!

Likely Winner-Inside Out/My Vote-Inside Out

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE-

Cartel Land is good journalism. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom has value for documenting a big moment in a nation’s history. What Happened, Miss Simone? is a well-rounded and involving story of a brave and talented woman’s struggle-filled life. Amy is an above-average, in-your-face character study of an international icon. And then there’s the downright heartbreaking The Look of Silence, a sort-of sequel to director Josua Oppenheimer’s once-in-a-lifetime The Act of Killing, and together they're the kind of movies that leave a permanent imprint on your brain. The Act of Killing lost to the good, but not great, music-filled 20 Feet from Stardom, and it’s probably going to happen again.

Likely Winner-Amy/My Vote-The Look of Silence

BEST LIVE ACION SHORT-
A lot of people are predicting the serious, but only OK Shok. Others think Ave Maria is amusing enough to get it. A lot of people liked Stutterer, and Day One packs a powerful punch. Everything is Going to Be OK is the only one nobody seems to like. I'm going to guess Day One because it's American and about war and stuff.
Likely Winner-Day One/My Vote-Ave Maria

BEST ANIMATED SHORT-

Bear Story, Prologue, and We Can't Live Without Cosmos are all good, but it's between the other two. Sanjay's Super Team could win because of Disney's strong marketing campaign and it would help with the racial diversity problem the Oscars have going on right now. But anyone who has seen these shorts knows that the best is World of Tomorrow and I am just hoping its greatness alone will make it a sure thing.
Likely Winner-World of Tomorrow/My Vote-World of Tomorrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT-

I've only seen two of these and they were both meh: Chau, Beyond the Lines and Last Day of Freedom, both of which feature good subjects but don't really delve into the stories. That leaves Body Team 12, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, and A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, any of which could win based on their topics (ebola, the making of the greatest Holocaust documentary, ritualistic murder in Pakistan), but my money's on Spectres of the Shoah, partly because it sounds the most interesting to me, but mostly because I think the Academy will want to honor a movie that they ignored originally and which is now considered an all-time documentary masterpiece.
Likely Winner-Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY-

I love the old-fashioned, filmy looks of Carol and The Hateful Eight. I’m not altogether convinced Sicario needs to be here, unless the Academy is trying to establish a tradition of not awarding Roger Deakins. Mad Max: Fury Road is visually impressive, but not as breathtaking as The Revenant, which was shot by Emmanuel Lubezki, who has won twice in a row for Gravity and Birdman. So I smell an unprecedented streak.

Likely Winner-The Revenant/My Vote-The Revenant

BEST FILM EDITING-

The Revenant is here in recognition of its overall technical brilliance, though its editing isn’t a quality as apparent as fellow nominees Mad Max: Fury Road and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Spotlight is also in the boat with the movies that are so well-edited that you don’t notice the editing as all. Then there’s The Big Short which owes a lot of its energy to the way it jumps around not only through time, but between narrative, fantasy, and documentary footage. however, I think Mad Max will be doing well in the technical categories, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t.

Likely Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road/My Vote-Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING-

I think Mad Max and The Revenant will be splitting these, although Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Martian are just as good. Sicario is up for Editing and Bridge of Spies for Mixing, but neither have a chance against those other more spectacular nominees.

Likely Editing Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road/My Vote: Mad Max: Fury Road
Likely Mixing Winner-The Revenant/My Vote-The Revenant

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN-

Maybe I’m ignorant, but the fact that Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and The Revenant all mostly take place in wide open spaces make them seem like strange fits here, with the elaborate period sets of Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl looking like harder work to pull off. Still, I think the most impressive examples of art direction are in the creation of fantasy worlds that appear believably real. So, Mad Max it is.

Likely Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road/My Vote-Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN-

The period costumes in Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, and The Revenant are more awards-y than the cosplay dares in Mad Max: Fury Road. There is as good a chance that Mad Max could make it here as much as anywhere, though The Danish Girl is the only movie that actually makes a fuss about its own clothing. I don’t know.

Likely Winner-The Danish Girl/My Vote-Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING-

Since there’s only three nominees here and one of them is always something random (This year's being the Swedish comedy The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared), it’s usually pretty easy to tell which makeup voters are gonna go for. That leaves either Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant, and Mad Max’s work looks like it was much more complicated.

Likely Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road/My Vote-Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS-

And finally, we have yet another category in which all of the nominees would be worthy winners. The least likely is Ex Machina, which had great effects, but on a much smaller scale than the others. Then, between Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens, who knows?! They’re all good! I’m just gonna guess Star Wars cause it was so popular.

Likely Winner-Star Wars: The Force Awakens/My Vote-Mad Max: Fury Road